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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Saturday 2016-01-09 · 20:15 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PIT
51.4%
CIN
48.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: A.J. McCarron (CIN) +0.098 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.202 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

PIT

DeAngelo Williams RB Out Foot
Will Allen S Probable Not Injury Related
Martavis Bryant WR Probable Neck
William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Heath Miller TE Probable Not Injury Related
Vince Williams LB Probable Illness

CIN

Andy Dalton QB Out right Thumb
Ryan Hewitt TE Out Knee
Brandon Thompson DT Out Knee
Leon Hall CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 18
–
CIN 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:32 FG PIT (2:32) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 00:37 FG PIT (:37) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 6 – CIN 0
  • Q3 10:13 FG PIT (10:13) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 9 – CIN 0
  • Q3 05:08 TD PIT (5:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 10-M.Bryant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PIT 15 – CIN 0
  • Q4 14:00 TD CIN (14:00) 32-J.Hill right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – CIN 6
  • Q4 05:17 FG CIN (5:17) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 15 – CIN 10
  • Q4 01:56 TD CIN (1:56) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – CIN 16
  • Q4 00:18 FG PIT (:18) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 18 – CIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 36, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 24-A.Jones.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:17) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 19 for 6 yards (47-P.Dawson).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:25) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to CIN 14, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey. PENALTY on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 55%

    (3:53) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-19-B.Tate.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 35%

    (13:14) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate. PENALTY on CIN-47-P.Dawson, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CIN 13.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:44) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-37-C.Lewis-Harris.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:44) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to CIN 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-B.Tate to CIN 29 for 10 yards (55-A.Moats).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:31) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 34 for 2 yards (37-C.Lewis-Harris; 26-J.Shaw).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 88%

    (2:32) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:57) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (:37) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (10:13) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:38) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:18) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 92%

    (5:17) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:42) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CIN 31, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to PIT 45 for 24 yards (98-V.Williams).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 58%

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short middle to 82-M.Jones to PIT 28 for 9 yards (55-A.Moats).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to CIN 47 for 12 yards (29-L.Hall).