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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short middle to 82-M.Jones to PIT 28 for 9 yards (55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model