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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-37-C.Lewis-Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP