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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CIN 31, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to PIT 45 for 24 yards (98-V.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model