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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.91 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model