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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:37) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model