Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate. PENALTY on CIN-47-P.Dawson, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CIN 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP

KICK -1.30 EP

35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model