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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to CIN 14, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey. PENALTY on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP