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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to CIN 47 for 12 yards (29-L.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.42 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -1.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model