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STL Away

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
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SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

STL
46.1%
SF
53.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Blaine Gabbert (SF): -0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

STL 21
–
SF 22
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

STL

Todd Gurley RB Doubtful Foot
Andrew Donnal T Questionable Knee
Michael Brockers DT Probable Thigh
Ethan Westbrooks DT Probable Concussion
Mark Barron S Probable Concussion

SF

Quinton Dial DT Out Back
Michael Wilhoite LB Out Ankle
Marcus Martin C Doubtful Concussion
Jaquiski Tartt S Doubtful Knee
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Tramaine Brock CB Probable Hamstring
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Trenton Brown T Probable Knee
Eli Harold LB Probable Finger
Dontae Johnson CB Probable Ankle
Erik Pears T Probable Knee
Eric Reid S Probable Hip
Joe Staley T Probable Knee
Arik Armstead DT Probable Shoulder
Bruce Miller RB Probable Foot
Torrey Smith WR Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 16
–
SF 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:16 FG LA (8:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 81-A.Boldin for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at LA 15. 15-yds YAC STL 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 09:08 FG SF (9:08) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. STL 3 – SF 10
  • Q2 02:48 FG LA (2:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 6 – SF 10
  • Q2 01:37 TD LA (1:37) 27-T.Mason right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 12 – SF 10
  • Q2 00:09 FG LA (:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 16 – SF 10
  • Q3 09:41 FG SF (9:41) 9-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. STL 16 – SF 13
  • Q4 04:33 FG SF (4:33) 9-P.Dawson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. STL 16 – SF 16
  • Q5 03:31 FG SF (3:31) 9-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. STL 16 – SF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to SF 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington. PENALTY on LA-53-D.Bates, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 38.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 41%

    (10:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to LA 13, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (8:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to LA 5, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 11 for 6 yards (49-B.Miller).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 60%

    (11:25) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep middle to 15-B.Marquez (10-B.Ellington).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (9:08) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (2:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to LA 34, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (9:41) 9-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 65%

    (1:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 52%

    (12:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep right to 82-T.Smith (22-T.Johnson) [99-A.Donald].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (10:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (4:33) 9-P.Dawson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

    (1:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-C.Bryant.