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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model