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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model