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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP