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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 9-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model