Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to SF 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington. PENALTY on LA-53-D.Bates, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 38.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.98 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model