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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 16 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-C.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model