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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model