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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP