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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread -11.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

PIT
67.8%
BAL
32.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ryan Mallett (BAL) -0.108 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.225 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Ryan Mallett in place of Jimmy Clausen)
  • BAL offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
BAL 19
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PIT

Will Allen S Probable Not Injury Related
William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Michael Mitchell S Probable Shoulder
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Knee

BAL

Marlon Brown WR Out Back
Albert McClellan LB Doubtful Ankle
Jimmy Smith CB Probable Thigh
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related
Rick Wagner T Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
BAL 20

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:58 TD BAL (3:58) (Shotgun) 7-R.Mallett pass short middle to 84-C.Matthews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 14:51 FG PIT (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – BAL 7
  • Q2 10:05 FG BAL (10:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 3 – BAL 10
  • Q2 01:22 FG BAL (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 3 – BAL 13
  • Q3 11:26 TD PIT (11:26) No. 74 - Hubbard - reports as eligible. 34-D.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-89-M.Spaeth, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 9 – BAL 13
  • Q4 10:40 TD BAL (10:40) 37-J.Allen up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – BAL 19
  • Q4 06:39 TD PIT (6:39) (No Huddle) 34-D.Williams right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – BAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (11:04) 34-D.Williams right guard to BAL 25 for no gain (91-C.Upshaw; 51-D.Smith).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (10:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 33, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 81-K.Clay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 34, Center-60-G.Warren. 81-K.Clay to BAL 33 for -1 yards (29-S.Thomas).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:29) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 21 for no gain (84-C.Matthews).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to BAL 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 81-K.Clay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-C.Matthews.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 36%

    (3:05) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Wheaton (35-S.Wright) [91-C.Upshaw].

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 55%

    (:12) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.