Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(7:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 33, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 81-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model