Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 34, Center-60-G.Warren. 81-K.Clay to BAL 33 for -1 yards (29-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.76 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model