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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model