Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(9:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.14 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model