4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 34-D.Williams right guard to BAL 25 for no gain (91-C.Upshaw; 51-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model