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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(14:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model