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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model