Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 20

(1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Wheaton (35-S.Wright) [91-C.Upshaw].

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.87 EP
71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -1.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model