4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Monday 2015-12-28 · 20:30 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CIN
46.9%
DEN
53.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Andy Dalton QB Out right Thumb
Tyler Eifert TE Out Concussion
George Iloka S Doubtful Groin
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee
Jake Fisher T Probable Concussion
Emmanuel Lamur LB Probable Hamstring
Vincent Rey LB Probable Hamstring

DEN

Omar Bolden S Out Hamstring
Peyton Manning QB Out Foot
Todd Davis LB Questionable Shoulder
Darian Stewart S Questionable Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Questionable Ankle
C.J. Anderson RB Probable Back
Andre Caldwell WR Probable Quadricep
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Bennie Fowler WR Probable Ankle
Evan Mathis G Probable Ankle
Lerentee McCray LB Probable Hamstring
Brock Osweiler QB Probable left Shoulder
Vance Walker DE Probable Shoulder
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 TD CIN (7:31) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short right to 18-A.Green for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 10:56 TD CIN (10:56) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – DEN 0
  • Q2 00:18 FG DEN (:18) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CIN 14 – DEN 3
  • Q3 10:20 TD DEN (10:20) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 10-E.Sanders for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – DEN 9
  • Q4 11:27 TD DEN (11:27) (Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – DEN 16
  • Q4 06:51 FG CIN (6:51) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – DEN 17
  • Q5 10:05 FG DEN (10:05) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CIN 17 – DEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 19 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (3:52) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate to CIN 10 for 1 yard (48-S.Barrett).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:14) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate to CIN 38 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis; 52-C.Nelson).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (2:31) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:18) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:10) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to DEN 39, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 23%

    (3:10) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:56) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 45 for 7 yards (33-S.Keo).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 32%

    (15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-C.Harris. 33-S.Keo to DEN 15 for 6 yards (46-C.Harris). CIN-36-S.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for -3 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:03) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 48 for 14 yards (30-C.Peerman).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 65%

    (6:51) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:51) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.