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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -1.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model