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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to DEN 39, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model