4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 47

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-C.Harris. 33-S.Keo to DEN 15 for 6 yards (46-C.Harris). CIN-36-S.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP