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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Tate to CIN 38 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis; 52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model