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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 56

Denver Broncos 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model