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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 2-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model