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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP