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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 48 for 14 yards (30-C.Peerman).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model