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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

TEN
27.9%
NE
72.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.184 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 17
–
NE 24
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

Mike Martin DT Out Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Out Shoulder
Da'Norris Searcy S Out Hamstring
Kendall Wright WR Out Ribs
Phillip Supernaw TE Questionable Foot
David Bass LB Probable Hip
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee

NE

Jonathan Freeny LB Out Hand
Eric Martin LB Out Illness
Julian Edelman WR Doubtful Foot
Tom Brady QB Questionable Illness
Scott Chandler TE Questionable Knee
Patrick Chung S Questionable Foot
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Josh Kline G Questionable Shoulder
Devin McCourty S Questionable Ankle
Matt Slater WR Questionable Other-Stinger
Rob Gronkowski TE Probable Not Injury Related
Bryan Stork C Probable Not Injury Related
Chandler Jones DE Probable Abdomen
Danny Amendola WR Probable Knee
Justin Coleman CB Probable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 16
–
NE 33

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:14 TD NE (7:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 14:00 TD NE (14:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 17 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones), touched at TEN 7, RECOVERED by NE-72-A.Hicks at TEN 0. TOUCHDOWN. TEN-8-M.Mariota was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Penalty on TEN-77-T.Lewan, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. NE 95-Jones 11.5 sacks for season, ties career high. TEN 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 09:49 FG TEN (9:49) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – NE 14
  • Q2 09:31 TD NE (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 35th TD pass of season, 4th career season with 35+ TD passes, ties NFL record (Peyton Manning). TEN 3 – NE 20
  • Q2 01:49 FG NE (1:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. TEN 3 – NE 24
  • Q3 10:12 TD TEN (10:12) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – NE 24
  • Q3 05:13 FG NE (5:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. TEN 10 – NE 27
  • Q4 07:04 TD TEN (7:04) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-23-P.Chung was injured during the play. TEN 16 – NE 27
  • Q4 03:35 FG NE (3:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. kicked bounced off right upright and through TEN 16 – NE 30
  • Q4 01:09 FG NE (1:09) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. TEN 16 – NE 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:45) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NE 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 21 for no gain (37-C.Riggs).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:35) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to NE 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 5 yards (89-P.Supernaw). FUMBLES (89-P.Supernaw), RECOVERED by TEN-37-C.Riggs at NE 26. 37-C.Riggs to NE 26 for no gain (37-J.Richards). Penalty on NE-26-L.Ryan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 69%

    (9:49) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 50%

    (5:16) 26-A.Andrews left guard to NE 38 for no gain (23-P.Chung). measurement

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 81%

    (1:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:28) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NE 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 45 for 22 yards. NE-80-D.Amendola was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:14) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 41 for 18 yards (27-T.Wilson).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 88%

    (5:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:06) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:36) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:11) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to TEN 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (3:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. kicked bounced off right upright and through

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (1:09) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.