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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 14

New England Patriots 30 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +1.99 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model