4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model