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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 38
Tennessee Titans 3 – New England Patriots 21
What Actually Happened
(5:16) 26-A.Andrews left guard to NE 38 for no gain (23-P.Chung). measurement
The Three Options
GO
+1.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.46 EP
- 36% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK
-0.25 EP
- 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
