4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 25

New England Patriots 21 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP