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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 23

New England Patriots 27 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. kicked bounced off right upright and through

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model