Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 3 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NE 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 45 for 22 yards. NE-80-D.Amendola was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.15 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model