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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 74

New England Patriots 24 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 41 for 18 yards (27-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model