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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 16:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIA
41.5%
SD
58.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): -0.045 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
SD 23
Projected margin: SD by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Earl Mitchell DT Out Calf
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Ankle
Bobby McCain CB Questionable Concussion
Rishard Matthews WR Questionable Ribs
Lamar Miller RB Probable Ankle
Billy Turner G Probable Calf
Damien Williams RB Probable Back
Jarvis Landry WR Probable Knee

SD

King Dunlap T Out Ankle
Steve Johnson WR Doubtful Groin
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Ankle
Sean Lissemore DT Questionable Shoulder
Steve Williams CB Questionable Hip
D.J. Fluker G Probable Concussion
Orlando Franklin G Probable Illness
Chris Hairston T Probable Abdomen
Javontee Herndon WR Probable Shoulder
Dontrelle Inman WR Probable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 14
–
SD 30

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:23 TD LAC (4:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 39-D.Woodhead for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – SD 6
  • Q2 09:08 FG LAC (9:08) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. MIA 0 – SD 9
  • Q2 04:21 TD LAC (4:21) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – SD 15
  • Q2 00:46 TD LAC (:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 39-D.Woodhead for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – SD 22
  • Q3 01:36 TD MIA (1:36) 23-J.Ajayi up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – SD 23
  • Q4 04:18 TD LAC (4:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – SD 29
  • Q4 01:41 TD MIA (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – SD 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 16%

    (10:40) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon pushed ob at LAC 14 for 1 yard (36-T.Lippett).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:41) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to LAC 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 45 for 18 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 22%

    (1:09) 5-M.Scifres punts 28 yards to MIA 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-J.Landry to MIA 22 for no gain (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:23) 4-M.Darr punts 32 yards to LAC 39, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (9:08) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:40) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to LAC 36, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 37 for 1 yard (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:18) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to LAC 25, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:35) 5-M.Scifres punts 45 yards to MIA 18, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-J.Landry to MIA 34 for 16 yards (50-M.Te'o, 97-J.Attaochu).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 20 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:15) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to LAC 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon pushed ob at LAC 37 for 10 yards (34-Da.Williams).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:32) 5-M.Scifres punts 37 yards to MIA 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-J.Landry, dead ball declared at MIA 28 for no gain.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:37) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to LAC 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 21 for 3 yards (31-M.Thomas, 42-S.Paysinger).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%

    (3:43) 2-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:18) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to LAC 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 42 for 11 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-D.Parker to MIA 33 for 10 yards (26-P.Robinson).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 14-J.Landry to LAC 47 for 14 yards (26-P.Robinson).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at LAC 11 for 34 yards (25-D.Stuckey).