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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to LAC 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon pushed ob at LAC 37 for 10 yards (34-Da.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model