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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-M.Scifres punts 45 yards to MIA 18, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-J.Landry to MIA 34 for 16 yards (50-M.Te'o, 97-J.Attaochu).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model