Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

(8:37) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to LAC 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 21 for 3 yards (31-M.Thomas, 42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.91 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model