4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to LAC 36, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 37 for 1 yard (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model