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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to LAC 25, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model